A Prediction for Tonight

OK, so I've geeked out about tonight... and I'm still not confident... in fact, less so...

The full reasoning of my lack of confidence (despite the pundits) can be found here... but here's how I see it shaking out (by poll closing)...

Dem Votes	Dem Win	State	GOP Win	GOP Votes
0		Indiana	+ 11 (slow)	11
0		Kentucky	+ 8	19
0		Florida	+ 27 (slow)	46
0		Georgia	+ 15	61
0		South Carolina	+ 8	69
3	+ 3	Vermont		69
16	+ 13 (slow)	Virginia		69
16		Ohio	+ 20 (slow)	89
16		West Virginia	+ 5	94
23	+ 7	Connecticut		94
26	+ 3	Delaware		94
29	+ 3	District of Columbia		94
33	+ 4	Maine		94
43	+ 10	Maryland		94
55	+ 12	Massachusetts		94
55		New Hampshire	+ 4 (slow)	98
70	+ 15	New Jersey		98
91	+ 21 (slow)	Pennsylvania		98
91		Alabama	+ 9	107
112	+ 21	Illinois		107
112		Mississippi	+ 6	113
112		Missouri	+ 11 (slow)	124
112		Oklahoma	+ 7	131
112		South Dakota	+ 3	134
112		Tennessee	+ 11	143
112		North Carolina	+ 15 (slow)	158
112		Arkansas	+ 6	164
143	+ 31	New York		164
147	+ 4	Rhode Island		164
147		Louisiana	+ 9	173
164	+ 17	Michigan		173
164		Minnesota	+ 10 (slow)	183
174	+ 10	Wisconsin		183
174		Arizona	+ 10	193
183	+ 9 (slow)	Colorado		193
183		Nebraska	+ 5	198
188	+ 5 (slow)	New Mexico		198
188		South Dakota	+ 3	201
188		Texas	+ 34	235
188		Wyoming	+ 3	238
195	+ 7	Iowa		238
195		Kansas	+ 6	244
195		Montana	+ 3	247
195		Utah	+ 5	252
195		Nevada	+ 5 (slow)	257
195		North Dakota	+ 3 (slow)	260
250	+ 55	California		260
250		Idaho	+ 4	264
257	+ 7	Oregon		264
267	+ 11	Washington		264
271	+ 4	Hawaii		264
271		Alaska	+ 3	267

My (really depressing) prediction: Obama: 271, McCain: 267. Obama wins the Electoral College barely along with the popular vote.

Then again, what the hell do I know? The professionals all have Obama winning (from comfortable to big)... they should know more than I... I hope so.

And tomorrow we'll see how wrong (hopefully) I was, er, am.