Another week plus

Craziness. Vegas, politics, work, water polo.

I've become a political junkie, and have been spending much of my free time updating my Electoral College tracker.

And it's the Friday before the most important vote of my life... and my prediction is:

McCain.

Yep, I'm that pessimistic.

Why? The polls keep fluctuating. And lately, it trends toward McCain. I think it will be tight. I think Obama will win the popular vote... may even get to 51 or 52, but I think the electoral will break toward McCain.

Despite the coverage of the MSM, I have 209 solid for Obama, 24 pretty strong, and 35 leaning (and that's 268). On the McCain side, I have him with a total of 212. That's a toss-up 58... in those states (CO, NC, VA, and PA), Obama is ahead, but with enough undecideds to go with McCain (I figure the smears of the last week will add up to a 3- or 4- to-1 break of undecideds to McCain)... and that means PA goes to McCain, North Carolina goes to Obama, and Virginia and Colorado are dead heats.

I know, that gives Obama the victory, with 283. But that doesn't take into account the "Bradley Effect"... with it McCain takes it by a bundle, 312-226.

So what can I do? I'm making calls on Saturday night.

My vote's in the mail... so at least this can't come true:

What's your favorite TV Show?

Do you like:
a) Cash Cab
b) Deadliest Catch

Do you like:
a) Doctor Who
b) Tin Man

Do you like:
a) Bill Engvall Show
b) My Boys

Do you like:
a) South Park
b) Colbert Report

Do you like:
a) Damages
b) It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia

Do you like:
a) Battle 360
b) Ax Men

Do you like:
a) Rock of Love with Bret Michaels
b) I Love New York

According to Neilsen, if you answered mostly A, you're a Republican... B, Democrat.

I think I may need to switch allegiance to vote for McCain...


or maybe not...

sorry

long time, no write... I know

sorry... work, life, water polo, politics, college football, blah blah blah

Work has been crazy... Monday was an up till midnight day of work.... but today we finally got a development freeze... thank god

Life is crazy... nothing like prepping for Halloween (especially when we're going away for a weekend getaway to Vegas the weekend before Halloween... and man do we need it).

Kyle sat out the game two Thursdays ago for grade (just one game, but I think it made an impression... grades are up and he's back in the pool). Last Tuesday, he played the school he would have attended had we not gone cross-town. He only played the last quarter (the coach thought it a good idea to keep the pressure on... preaching to the converted here, coach), but played well and even scored on a last-second shot. Last Thursday he played another quarter (against a team that wouldn't challenge the team... and it would give the Frosh/Soph goalie some good game time). Yesterday, he played the whole game, and a good game it was. While he gave up eight goals, three were on man-down situations and one on a penalty shot. He had seven saves, two steals, and an assist, and the team fought back from behind to send the game to overtime. And they won their first overtime game of the season (they lost their other two OT games)... they're undefeated in league.

Politics have been on an interesting ride: Obama gets endorsements from Powell (hope he's willing to come on as Sec of State... and I'd hit up McCain as Sec of Def... but more on that--and not counting chickens, etc--later), Warren Buffet, Bernanke (of a sort), William F. Buckley's son, and 124 newspapers (to McCain's 46). It all looks good, kinda. Though the silly season is hitting hyperdrive.

We've jumped from "liberal" to "secret Muslim" to "palling around" with terrrorists (with constant references to his middle name)... to accusing Obama of smearing "Joe the Plumber"... to now GOP congresspeople hinting at Obama being "anti-American" to other accusations of Socialism, to discussion of areas of "real" America, to accusations of "communist" yesterday... where is this all heading? What's next? He's a pedophile? Necrophile? The anti-Christ?

--------------------------
UPDATE: 11:20am... it's worse: they're back to "academic" ... damn, that's hitting below the belt.
--------------------------


(of course, Biden doesn't help with his "testing" remark over the weekend, and Obama's pandering to both Philadelphia and Tampa's crowds over their baseball teams was just stupid)

Palin's appearance on SNL was pretty good (the open was great, the Weekend Update was idiotic)... she looked good... how much of that wardrobe was part of the 150K from the RNC? What would Joe the Plumber say if his wife (uh, ex-wife?) came back with a 150K bill on threads?

Even with all this, Obama's lead in popular vote seems to be growing, but I see his electoral vote dwindling to the point where his "on the face of it" victory is slim, and under the "Bradley Effect," he loses outright (though both margins are tightening as we get closer to election day).

My take is that when November 5 rolls around, we'll be looking at another Republican administration. Yeah, I'm a pessimist.

Anyway...

UCLA football won a great comeback victory... of course, yesterday we lost another offensive lineman... not good.

It's all crazy right now...

back to work... more chiro later this afternoon, maybe some more Halloween decorating... more work tomorrow, then off to Vegas for the weekend... man, am I looking forward to that...

Bradley Effect

OK, so I'm not the only one thinking of this...



of course, they're funnier...

quick hit

OK, so it looks like I'm a part of the minuscule minority who though McCain won last night's debate... well, at least the first half of it. He came out strong, finally looked Obama in the eye, and put forth really good arguments for his policies.

Then he got bogged down in the whole Ayers thing, and the rest of the debate was pretty much a draw in my eyes. Did McCain seem grumpy? Sure, at times... but at times Obama looked goofy, grinning too much. Did Obama seem steadier, less liable for emotional ups and downs. Absolutely, and that's what I think most people (at least those who saw him winning the debate) saw.

McCain seems like a guy who'd like a clean campaign... I would have loved it if one of them would have just held out his hand and said, "Let's make a pledge, right here, right now, to have NO negative ads for the remaining three weeks. No attack ads, no 'comparison' ads." It would have put the other is a horrible dilemma... and it would have been fun to watch (no matter what direction it was heading).

Then we could have been spared crap like this from the Sacramento GOP (who has since removed it from their site)...

What bullshit.

birthdays

are milestones
that with which we measure the passage of time
yesterday would have been ma's 76th birthday

the five of us went down to the harbor
with flowers
and thoughts
is that our buoy? pa asked
it might have been

a gull flew along the shore
into the wind
buffetting up and down, wings out
moving fast but going nowhere
until the effort was too much and it turned
and with a single flap
sped inland

our mums for mom
had problems going to sea
hugging the shore
lisa and the boys left messages for ma in the sand
with the wind and the high tide i'm sure they're gone now

birthdays are signposts
marking time
can't believe it's been almost two years, pa said
i can believe it
feels like forever
but only when thinking of ma

when thinking of the boys
time has flown
like the gull away from shore
for ma
like the gull into the wind

the pain is less
no tears, a little choke
big tightness in my chest
tightness around
the nothing

the pain is less
but the emptiness is still here
no amount of sushi after could fill it
no amount of green tea could warm it

i'm not depressed
i'm not that sad
just empty
but not all the time
just in moments

measured by
birthdays

updates

Not a typo in the online grade check: C on the Iliad paper... it's supposed to come home today, so we can triage and debrief. I'm feeling bad about all this... I've drawn a line in the sand that Kyle may not be able to cross. I'm considering an alternative: if he can raise the Science grade to a B (he's only two percentage points away), and we receive weekly reports from English that's he heading in the right direction (as opposed to holding steady or declining), we'll let him play. I'm torn. I've lowered my expectations already (from straight A's to a 3.5 [with no C's])... I hate to lower them again. On the flip side, I hate to see him out of the pool (though his team didn't need him yesterday, they will in coming weeks). But there's got to be consequences. I just don't know.

Meanwhile, I've been geeking out big-time over the political polls and my Electoral Map Tracker (with Bradley Effect discussion). I'm pretty happy with it... I hope to keep it updated daily.

The Political Landscape

(even beyond the stress over Kyle's grades, see below)

I've been thinking ALOT about the upcoming election.

I'm an Obama supporter. I find him inspirational at a time when we desperately need that. I used to like McCain (back when he really was a maverick... eight through six years ago)... but with his flip-flop on the Religious Right ("agents of intolerance" have become the base he courts with the pick of Palin) and his taking on more Rove-ian tactics, I've lost some respect for the guy. Can he lead? Probably (though being a POW is NOT a leadership resume point). But his age and temperament give me pause. His choice of Palin is the key here... it seems a reactionary choice (Hillary was a woman...), made too quickly. I do NOT like or respect Palin's views (what she has espoused/stated/parroted thus far), and the idea that she could become President (and no, I don't care that she was a governor of Alaska or once mayor of its second largest town) scares me. His choice to "suspend" his campaign (though I saw no evidence that he did) and to pull out of the first debate, only to jump back in, points to a certain erratic nature... not something I want in a Commander-in-Chief. The fact that he wouldn't even look at Obama in the first debate, and (it seemed to me) would look only in his direction (but not make actual eye contact) in the second (especially after the character attacks that had be issued over the weekend), also raises questions as to his temperament.

But all these I can take. But the stuff that his happening on the fringes of the campaign is what's getting me. The rise again of the "Hussein" stuff, the constant reference to Obama's "terrorist" friends, and yesterday's proclamation by Cindy McCain that Obama had personally insulted her by voting to "not support" the troops of which her son is one (when this claim is total bullshit and can be made of her husband as well). It has Rove's fingerprints all over it. And to think that McCain has aligned himself with the same slime-merchants that derailed his own campaign in 2000 (in the ugliest of fashions, filled with rumor and innuendo) just kills me. This insinuation that a vote for Obama is support for terrorism kills me. The underlying implication that Obama is actually a sleeper agent for the Islamic terrorists kills me.

Just remember, folks... the Manchurian Candidate was a former POW.

Anyway... got a little distracted there. Sorry.

So I've been thinking alot about the political landscape, and the impression that Obama leads in the polls and may actually win the election. And maybe I'm just a pessimist... but I'm not buying it. I worry too much about the Bradley effect (something only a few are talking about, and none with any statistical ripple effects). And so I put together a electoral poll viewer, complete with a Bradley effect component. You Can check it out here.

Unless the Bradley effect is worse than 5 percent, Obama looks to be in pretty good shape. But October is said to be filled with surprises... and with Rove's disciples pulling the strings at McCain's campaign, who knows what will pop up (can anyone say "gimme more Rezko and Wright"?)

grades and ripples

Had a hard time sleeping last night (and woke up with a wrenched neck... guess I'm off to the chiro today [Lisa needs an appt, too, for a sore shoulder]). Kyle's been having some high school grade adjustment issues. At Back-To-School night, we found that he had a D in Health, and C's in three other classes. He's been able to turn around Health to an A, and the C in Geometry to an A. I had given him two and a half weeks to bring the C's to B's, else I would sit him from games. Tuesday, the grade checks came back... still C's. So he sits.

But that's not the issue. His Science class has not turned in an assignment for a week... so it's difficult for him to raise the 78 percent to 80 (honestly, we weren't too impressed by the teacher at BTS night... and Lisa has a growing antipathy toward her [I know, unbelievable for Queen of Second Chances Lisa]). English looked to be tough, but doable. He had 75 percent, but had a major paper on the Iliad due last week. We helped him edit it, and it turned out well. Or so we thought... Looking at the online gradebook yesterday, (unless I'm reading it wrong) he received a 71 out of 100. Kyle doesn't know yet, but both Lisa and I are concerned. The paper was solid. Of course, now we're questioning ourselves. And wondering if (since we didn't see the actual essay prompt) Kyle missed something crucial... or if his thesis, that Achilles is NOT heroic, didn't pass muster with the teacher whose assignment was on discussing a hero in the Iliad. The title of the assignment is "Response to Literature" and he did. But Lisa says we shouldn't jump to conclusions about anything until we see the returned paper. We just know that he will be devastated. So this morning, after his shower, I'm going to prep him (since the papers are supposed to come back today).

So he misses his first game this afternoon. He want to go to the Homecoming Dance in a week and a half, but Lisa and I both agree that it's a no-go with C's. It's tough... it's a formal dance, so it can't be a last minute decision. This really stinks.

I know that in the larger scheme of things, this is nothing. But right now, fatherhood is not fun.

disturbing

OK, another week passes: work, life, waterpolo, Kyle's grades, the Veep debate, UCLA football/waterpolo, headaches, work... time passes.

Beyond the pretty fascinating Veep debate (Palin held her own... without answering squat, though Joe Six-Pack probably found that endearing; Biden reeled in his own propensity for off-the-wall tangents... most saw it as a tie, but with the polls the way they were, tie goes to the leader Obama), there's not much to discuss (though Bruce IS now set to perform the Super Bowl's halftime show), except for this disturbing issue:

Two and a half weeks ago, I jammed a pencil into my hand at a water polo game (note to self and anyone else who's listening: take the pencil out of your hand BEFORE you applaud a great play). Did the urgent care thing the next day, got antibiotics. Within a day of the meds running out, the wound got red and inflamed and a little white along the edges. Another urgent care visit: more meds, a culture to make sure it was that nasty staph infection, and instructions to soak my hand in hot water multiple times a day, to bring the meds to the infection and the lead, if it was still there, to the surface. By last Saturday, it was getting dark and swollen, making me believe that it was coming to the surface. Yesterday morning, it looked like a scab. Yesterday afternoon, the tip of the graphite broke the surface... I joked to Kyle that I could probably write with it. After dinner, I soaked, removed my hand, ran my finger in a circle around the lead, soaked and repeated for 15 minutes. I could see it growing...

After about 6 reps, I did the circular rub again... and it slid all the way out:


Now THAT's disturbing.